Tired slogans in face of Trump tariffs spell real risk for Poilievre

John Woodside,
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

As incoming U.S. President Donald Trump threatens a trade war to push Canadian officials  to cave on a list of demands, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is in  a political bind that represents his first real threat to his electoral  chances, experts say.

Poilievre is still  riding high in the polls, and his party is widely expected to form the  next government, but nonetheless political scientists interviewed by Canada’s National Observer  say Poilievre’s problems are piling up around him, without a clear way  out, due to conservative premiers in Alberta and Ontario in open  opposition to each other. For Poilievre, taking a side in the dispute  risks upsetting voters he is counting on in those provinces.

The  conflict between premiers Danielle Smith and Doug Ford, representing  two of the country’s largest economic engines, is over how best to  proceed against American tariff threats. Last week, Smith refused to  sign onto a joint statement endorsed by Ontario, and every other  province and territory and the federal government, agreeing on next  steps if Trump imposes 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian exports. The  reason, she said, was because federal officials won’t rule out cutting  oil exports to the United States as leverage.

Ford said he understands the impulse to defend one’s jurisdiction, but country comes first.

“You  can’t let someone hit you over the head with a sledgehammer without  hitting them back twice as hard, in my opinion,” Ford said before the  premiers’ meeting. “If you have some aces, you hold on to your aces.”

Poilievre has yet to take a clear position, and opponents are noticing. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called on Poilievre last week to fight for Canadians or “stand with Danielle Smith, Kevin O’Leary, and ultimately, Donald Trump.”

Don  Desserud, a political science professor at the University of Prince  Edward Island, said Poilievre misread what Trump’s election would mean  for Canada.

“He thought that once Trump  won that he was going to be best pals, and they’d work together really  well… not realizing that Trump was going to come forward so aggressively  against Canada,” Desserud said.

Beyond  figuring out how to stand up for Canada against Trump, Poilievre has to  find a way to strike a balance between Alberta and Ontario since those  provinces are major bases of Conservative support needed to form the  next federal government, Desserud said.

“So  things have just gotten real for Poilierve,” he said. “He can’t just  use a clever slogan and go after an unpopular prime minister. He needs  to have much more.”

The Conservative Party of Canada did not return a request for comment.

Poilievre did tell The Globe and Mail he would retaliate  against Trump’s tariffs, but stopped short of any details. When asked  by reporters Thursday if he would stand behind Smith’s position to  shield oil and gas exports from any retaliatory measures, Poilievre dodged the question, the CBC reports.

Economic engines at odds

Smith and Ford’s dispute over how to respond to Trump’s tariffs is rooted in the economic makeup of Alberta and Ontario.

Canada exported $592 billion worth of goods  to the United States in 2023, with crude oil, the vast majority of  which comes from Alberta’s oilpatch, representing the country’s top export valued at $124 billion. Automobiles, most of which come from Ontario, were the country’s second largest export valued at $51 billion.

Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, a senior researcher with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives,  said when two conservative premiers are disagreeing at a time of  serious threats to the Canadian economy, it’s not prime ministerial for  Poilievre to hide in the shadows.

“You can  imagine a federal conservative leader playing a really important  conciliatory role right now between Smith and Ford,” he said. Poilievre  “could be playing an important role, but I don’t see any desire to do  that.

“It’s not the behaviour of a prime  minister in waiting, but I don’t think it’s surprising for someone who  has proven to be essentially a perpetual campaigner and an agitator.”

When  a politician is in the lead, it’s dangerous to change course, Desserud  said. However, staying on the sidelines also carries significant risks.

“What  you end up doing is suffering the death of a thousand cuts,” he said.  “If you keep saying you’re not going to get involved in this one, and  not get involved with that one, or that one, eventually people say,  ‘Well what the heck are you involved in?’”

If  Poilievre stepped up to negotiate consensus between Smith and Ford, he  could more easily cast himself able to unite the country in times of  crisis, he added.

Carbon tax

Poilievre’s  focus to date has been on attacking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and  the carbon price — an increasingly stale message since he announced his  resignation in early January, Desserud said. After all, Liberal  leadership front runners Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland have already  signalled dropping the price on pollution if elected.

Rather  than laying out a plan to deal with tariffs, the Conservative Party  launched an ad campaign last week aimed at Carney. The ads quote various  times Carney has supported a price on pollution and concludes that  “Carbon Tax Carney is just like Justin.”

Desserud thinks what Poilievre is missing is that the carbon tax is a dead issue.

“Flogging  a dead horse is the perfect metaphor for this. It’s gone, and the sting  of the fact that Trudeau has to wear this is also gone because he’s  leaving,” Desserud said.

“So this shows to me a real poverty of ideas in that party that they don’t know what else to do,” he said.

Desserud  said the next federal election is not going to be about the carbon tax,  the way Conservatives have planned for the past year. Instead, it will  be about Canada-U.S. relations, and Poilievre doesn’t yet have a  coherent position.

Asa McKercher, research  chair of Canada-U.S. Relations at St. Francis Xavier University, said  the Conservative focus on “axe the tax,” or any variation of their  verb/noun slogans that have driven the party to the top of the polls, is  now missing the moment.

“The prevailing  assumption is the Conservatives will form the next government barring  some crazy turn of events,” he said. “Well, if we know anything about  Donald Trump, he’s crazy like a shithouse rat, so maybe this is the  crazy event that could turn things around.”

McKercher  said he doesn’t believe the Liberals will win a majority — or even form  government — but under fresh leadership mixed with an unpopular  American president threatening the Canadian economy, the Conservatives  could be held to a minority government.

For  that reason, the Conservatives must be careful to not appear as “Trump  Lite” to voters because if the Canadian economy tanks under the weight  of tariffs, the Canadian public could blame Trump more than Ottawa, and  politicians could find tremendous support pushing back against the  Americans.

“In Canadian history we’ve had  anti-American elections before,” he said. “There’s a lot of votes to be  found in that, and in particular when there’s a figure like Donald Trump  who is so unpopular.”

John Woodside,
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
Canada’s National Observer